KEY ISSUES
According to the latest findings from a joint countrywide seasonal assessment by Food Security and Nutrition Analysis unit (FSNAU) and partners, updated based on the new population estimates for Somalia published by UNFPA (October 2014), 1 014 000 people across Somalia will be in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) through December 2015. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) constitute 62 percent of the total number of people in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4), followed by rural (28 %) and urban (10 %) populations.
Approximately 3.9 million additional people are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through December 2015.
The above analysis and projections have factored into account the likely food security impacts of a moderate El Nino leading to heavy rains and flooding in riverine and low-lying areas of Somalia.
Based on prevalence estimates from nutrition surveys conducted by FSNAU, an estimated 308 0001 children under the age of five are acutely malnourished (56 000 of them severely malnourished). FSNAU nutrition surveillance in Buloburto town (Hiran Region) Xudur town (Bakool Region) showed sustained prevalence of Very Critical levels of acute malnutrition in both towns during September 2015.
Hagga (July-September) dry season impact assessment conducted by FSNAU in September 2015 indicates an estimated 5 035 tonnes of off-season crop harvest in southern Somalia, 17 percent lower than earlier projections, mainly due to erratic and insufficient Hagga rains. In the Northwest, overall Gu-Karan cereal harvest prospects have improved due to near average to average performance of Karan rains (late August-September 2015).
During the Hagaa season, water and pasture were poor in parts of Togdheer, Sanag, Bari, Juba and Gedo Regions; and very poor in the drought affected parts of Awdal Region. Livestock deaths and goat abortions have been reported in most of these areas. On the other hand, Karan rains (August/September 2015) have improved rangeland conditions in Northwest agro pastoral livelihood zone.
Cereal availability has improved in most markets due to increased supplies from Gu 2015 and recent offseason harvests. In most parts of the country, availability of imported staple and non-staple food commodities is normal, owing to sustained supply with low prices which are in stable or declining trend. The effects of continued trade disruption due to insurgent activities in some urban areas in Southern regions have persisted albeit some improvement in recent months.
Climate forecasts indicate that southern and central regions of Somalia are likely to receive above normal to normal rains for the current Deyr season (October-December 2015), with below normal to normal rains expected in the northern regions of the country. Deyr rains have started in October in most parts of the country, with seasonal agricultural activities already underway in some of the main crop producing southern regions. However, farming activities are likely to be constrained in some areas due to on-going conflicts between government troops and insurgents.
According to UNHCR, 52 344 people were displaced between July to September 2015 as a result of insecurity due to military offensive (31%), eviction (24 %) and due to other security related reasons (23%). Humanitarian operations remain constrained due to insecurity.