Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
Biophysical Indicators
The biophysical indicators show negative fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges.
There were light showers received within the first week of October.
The vegetation conditions have worsened in Tana River County. This is evident with the overall county VCI of 33.89 recorded. This is a great reduction in the vegetation biomass in comparison to the month of September, which had a VCI of 41.27. The county VCI falls within the moderate drought range of 21-34. However Galole and Garsen recorded a VCI of 38.74 and 40.9 which fall within normal VCI range of 35-50. This is still a greater reduction compared to last month. The situation is deteriorating in Bura with a VCI of 21.98 which is below normal compared to last month.
SPI for May stood at 0.33.
Currently the state of water sources is at the range of 2-3 in the county. This is the normal range during this season of the year and the situation is expected to deteriorate as the dry spell progresses.
Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)
There are no unusual livestock migration patterns noted in the county, however with the progression of the dry spell, migrations of livestock moving towards the marginal and mixed livelihood zones is expected to increase.
Livestock body condition for cattle, goats and sheep is deteriorating in all livelihood zones. This is expected to worsen with the ongoing dry spell.
Milk production has remained constant compared to that of September and is below the seasonal normal ranges.
Utilization indicators
The malnutrition status of children under the age of 5 years who are at risk remained stable ranging between 9- 10 % in October. This could be attributed to ongoing relief Interventions.
Current Drought Risk
With the progression of the dry spell (September-October), the drought risks level is on the increase. Day temperatures are very high and this, according to the communities, is a positive sign of the coming rains. The short rains have delayed and are still yet to come at the beginning of November. The communities are aware of the expected Elnino rains and have learnt on how to respond in case of emergencies. At present the drought risks level is at the medium side due to the ongoing dry spell. The current pasture and water can sustain the county livestock population for a period of less than one month.