Summary
> 7,200 NEW IDPS: The near complete change of the control (95%) of Shiekh Miskine to the government has triggered the sudden displacement of a third of Abtaa’s population, within less than 48 hours (January 25-26). This displacement is ongoing apace. Displacement within and from Nawa has also continued, with 500 new IDPs displaced from the East to the West of the city in less than three days.
NEEDS – FOOD: IDPs require, as a priority, protection, food (including flour for bread), and access to safe and clean water. The massive new IDP influxes have compounded the already substantial insufficiency of bread availability within Da’el and Nawa.
NEEDS – SHELTER: Having reached such a high number of displaced, shelter in the western area of Dar’a is increasingly becoming a need. There are currently some 2,500 IDPs living without sufficient shelter in Da’el. Local CSOs in Nawa are requesting assistance to establish tents given the numbers of the displaced from within and arriving to the town.
PRE-POSITIONING: Partners are working to pre-position-food and other essential relief items inside southern Syria to cover at least 20% of possible future displacement (up to 60,000) as well as current displacement (35,715 IDPs) to allow a timely response should the worst case displacements materialize.
Situation Overview
Context: On 25 January, Government of Syria (GoS) control over Sheikh Miskine rose from some 60% to 95% of the city within a period of two days. Sheikh Miskine is therefore broadly considered to have been retaken by government forces at the time of reporting, although government forces still need to raise dirt barricades and remove residual opposition forces from western-most neighborhoods to declare it fully retaken. With the flank of Nawa (11km away) and Abtaa (4km away) now exposed, a second major wave of displacement has started, with civilians making the calculation that one of these neighboring villages may soon be subject to government offensive. The estimated number of people displaced to date and their locations are listed below.
Access: Crossing of humanitarian assistance from Jordan has been delayed in the past week due to ice and snow; however, convoys will resume at the beginning of the coming week.
Outlook: Abtaa, Da’el and Nawa are well within range of heavy artillery. They are also perceived to be at risk of potential pro-government offensives. Real or anticipated expansion of Government control can trigger larger displacement. Contingency planning, including pre-positioning, is therefore necessary. This is true for the response to Sheikh Miskine events, but also more broadly as regards contingency planning and response for other scenarios.
Displacement
Background (Phases of Displacement):
The government offensive to retake Sheikh Miskine triggered the displacement of the entirety of the civilian population remaining in the village during the month of November and early December.
Since late December 2015, shelling and aerial bombing of the villages of Abtaa and Nawa by pro-government forces has also increased, leading to the southward displacement of a >4,500 new IDPs from Abtaa and Nawa.
A further >14,500 IDPs were displaced within Abtaa and Nawa municipalities.
Following the change of control of Sheikh Miskeen 25 January, and indications of a potential government advance to Abtaa, a major portion the population of Abtaa has displaced to neighbouring townships. This secondary displacement to outside of Abtaa, amounting to > 6,800 IDPs, significantly exacerbates the needs of those displaced since they are forced to leave their municipality of origin and the coping mechanisms available to them there. In many cases new IDPs have moved outside of their municipality to a new village bringing little more than the cloths on their backs and a few blankets.
This brings the displacement during the last two months to > 35,715 IDPs in total due to the battle for Sheikh Miskine.
Humanitarian Needs and Response
Food Security: Bread is a core staple in the Hauran Region. However flour shipments in past weeks are reported to not have been at usual levels in key areas affected by displacement. Already strained to serve local populations, the new IDP influxes have compounded the bread gap. Da’el and Nawa among the worst affected communities. Food more broadly is considered among priority response needs.
NFI/Shelter: With temperatures dropping, and in response to recent displacement, in the first week of January 2016, NFI/Shelter Sector partners drew up a coordinated forward plan and implemented a response of NFI kits serving 5,006 HH or 25,000 individuals in the two hardest hit areas Da’el and Nawa at the time. Those IDPs and some others are moving with some blankets and winter clothes. However since then displacement has continued to increase with thousands displaced from Abtaa putting further strain on shelter in the Western Area. Many NFI partners have run out of supplies to serve oncoming waves of displacement and require new and rapid funding to respond at appropriate scale.
Having reached such a high number of displaced, shelter in the western area of Dar’a is increasingly become a need. There are currently some 2,500 IDPs living without minimal shelter in Da’el. Local CSOs in Nawa are requesting assistance to establish tents given the numbers of the displaced from within and arriving to the town.