KEY ISSUES
Based on ongoing monitoring activities in addition to the results of the Food Security Analysis Unit (FSNAU) rapid preliminary Gu season field assessment (June 2015), FSNAU projects a short-term deterioration of food security conditions in parts of agricultural livelihoods of Somalia in the post-Gu period (July-December 2015). The deterioration is likely due to below average harvest outlook, although the anticipated shortfall in domestic cereal production could be partially mitigated by planned humanitarian food and social safety net interventions in the South, based on the Somalia Food Security Cluster information. On the other hand, the food security situation is likely to improve in livestock-dependent livelihoods as a result of anticipated improvement in livestock herd size and favourable livestock prices as well as increased milk availability. However, there are some concern areas in parts of the country where erratic Gu rainfall may impact livestock conditions during the dry Hagaa season. Nevertheless, the situation is expected to improve with the start of Deyr rains in October, which are projected to be good based on very preliminary forecast. Food security crisis situation is likely to sustain in the towns of Bakool and Hiran regions, which have been experiencing trade blockade over the past one year. Critical levels of global acute malnutrition (GAM) [≥15 %] were observed in five out of 13 surveyed (May 2015) settlements of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).
• Overall, cereal harvest in southern Somalia is expected to be below average. This shortfall is attributed to floods (April) in riverine areas of Middle Shabelle and moisture stress in most agropastoral areas, caused by early cessation of Gu rains. Off-season harvests expected in September in flood-affected Middle Shabelle and riverine areas of Juba and Gedo regions will partially offset the Gu cereal harvest losses. In the agropastoral livelihood of the Northwest, the Gu harvest (July 2015) is expected to be below average to poor. However, this livelihood normally receives its main Gu-Karan harvest in October-November. Considering that Karan rains (July-August) are projected to be near normal to below normal, an overall Gu-Karan harvest in the Northwest is likely to be below normal.
• Livestock conditions have improved in most pastoral and agropastoral areas of the country. However, there are some rain-deficit areas in parts of the regions of Bari, Sanag and Awdal in the North, Gedo (Garbaharey and Belethawa districts) in the South and Galgadud (Adado district) in Central that do not expect any rains until October. Therefore, these areas are likely to experience pasture and water shortages over the course of the Hagaa dry season (July-September 2015). In most pastoral/ agropastoral areas, livestock (camel, cattle and goats) holding of poor households is expected to reach near baseline to above baseline levels apart from a few areas in Central (Cowpea Belt and Coastal Deeh livelihoods) and North (Coastal Deeh livelihood), where it is likely to remain below baseline levels. Milk availability is expected to improve in most parts of the country over the next six months. This along with anticipated favourable livestock prices will have a positive impact on food access of pastoralists/ agropastoralists in most areas.
• The inflation rate measured through Consumer Prices Index (CPI) has decreased (5-9%) over the past one year in most parts of the country due to declines in prices of food commodities included in the basket. This trend contributed to increased/ stable urban household’s purchasing power in the same period in most regions. However, in urban areas of Bakool and Hiran regions that have been experiencing trade blockade for more than one year, the prices of food commodities remain high, particularly in Hiran region. In Bulo Burto (Hiran) town, cereal and other food commodity prices have increased further since January this year. The prevalence of global malnutrition in Bulo Burto is Very Critical (25%) and Critical (16%) in Hudur town of Bakool Region based on FSNAU nutrition assessment conducted in June, although it has slightly decreased since the previous assessment (April) owing to recent humanitarian interventions. On the other hand, in siege-affected towns of Hudur and Wajid (Bakool), prices of cereals have declined since the beginning of the year; compared to a year ago prices of all major food commodities are significantly reduced in Hudur as a result of humanitarian interventions carried out through air lifting in the past few months as well as alternative food supply routes available to this town.
• Recent FSNAU surveys show deterioration in nutrition situation from six months ago in the assessed IDP settlements in Kismayo and Dhobley, while improvement was noted among Bossaso IDPs in the North. Critical levels of GAM rate (≥15 %) were observed among IDPs in Dhobley, Baidoa and Dolow in South-Central regions and Garowe and Galkayo in the Northeast.