A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
Since April 2015, the political and security situation in Burundi has been tense with violence continuing in the capital of Bujumbura and some provinces in the aftermath of President Nukurunziza decision to run for another term. After an attempted coup in May 2015, parliamentary and presidential elections went ahead in June and July 2015, however following Nkurunziza’s electoral success, opposition groups in exile aligned to form the National Council for the Restoration of the Arusha Accords. A series of high-profile assassinations, violent clashes, and alleged human rights abuses swept across Burundi and while international pressure for dialogue and restraint mounted, people fled the country in significant numbers. As of 8 March 2016, an estimated 249,078 people (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) 2016) have fled from Burundi to neighbouring countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia; while increasing numbers of people have been internally displaced within the country.
On 22 January 2016, the United Nations Security Council met President Nkurunziza to convince him to engage in the peace talks and accept the African Union (AU) proposed peacekeeping force - the African Prevention and Protection Mission in Burundi (MAPROBU), but no meaningful agreements were reached. The Security Council delegation then travelled to Addis Ababa and met with AU leaders, who agreed on the need for an urgent and inclusive inter-Burundian dialogue.
Since November 2015, apart from civil unrest, the population is also being affected by multiple emergencies, the impact of which has been exacerbated by the political and security situation – these include the El Niño phenomena, internal displacement, food insecurity, and increased risk of infections and water borne diseases (e.g. cholera and malaria).
Since September 2015, the El Niño season has brought extensive rains, winds, landslides and floods in 15 out of 18 provinces causing extensive and widespread destruction. Many of these provinces do not normally have problems with flooding and others who do are this year experiencing heavier rainfall than usual. As of mid-February 2016, 63 deaths had been recorded, 110 injured, 5,068 houses destroyed, 99 schools and 50 bridges destroyed/damaged, and 10,088 hectares of cultivated fields destroyed. It is estimated that 30,408 people have been affected (Burundi Red Cross Society, 2016).
Internal displacement has been exacerbated as a result of both the civil unrest, and natural and health related disasters. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), 86 per cent of new IDPs reported the civil unrest as the main contributing factor, nine per cent reporting natural and health related disasters, and the remaining five per cent other factors. It is estimated that at least 78,948 people have been internally displaced within the country (UNHCR 2015), of which 25,081 are in the Kirundo, Makamba and Rutana provinces (IOM 2016).
Food security assessments conducted by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and partner organizations indicate there is an increase of food insecurity in areas affected by the civil unrest and an estimated 645,000 people in Bujumbura Rural, Bururi, Citiboke, Kirundo, Makamba, Muyinga, Mwaro, and Rumonge are considered ‘food insecure’ of which 35,000 are ‘severely food insecure’ and require emergency food assistance. According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) severe acute malnutrition in children has doubled in Bujumbura between October and December 2015.
Both cholera and malaria are endemic in Burundi. In December, 62 cases of cholera were reported in Bubanza, 55 in Bujumbura Rural and one DRC in Makambawere coming from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Since February, 22 further suspected cases of cholera were declared in Bujumbura Rural – Kabezi District – and in Cibitoke. On the border with Tanzania, there has also been an increase in the number of malaria cases reported, especially in five provinces in the Centre (Karunzi) and North Region (Ngozi, Kayanza, Kirundo and Muyinga). As of February 2016, 18 out of 46 health districts have been affected by malaria, with a total of 1,158,439 cases and 520 deaths reported (ReliefWeb 2016).