Summary of major revisions made to emergency plan of action:
This update provides a brief overview of the trends in terms of new cholera cases. It also provides an update on the Tanzanian Red Cross Society (TRCS) actions to date in the cholera response activities as covered by the Emergency Appeal. The update also extends the Appeal timeframe until 31 May 2016 to allow for the Appeal revision which will include new activities and a new budget. At time of publishing the appeal coverage is 66%.
A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
15 August, 2015: first cholera outbreak case reported in Dar es Salaam’s Kinondoni district before spreading throughout the Dar es Salaam region and the following twelve other regions of the country: Morogoro, Kigoma, Dodoma, Geita, Mwanza, Mara, Arusha, Tabora, Tanga, Shinyanga, Singida and Coast, and the island of Zanzibar.
May 2015: cholera outbreak declared in Nyarugusu refugee camp on the Tanzanian/Burundi border, home to around 175,000 Burundian refugees with 4,833 cases and 40 deaths reported. The outbreak was contained through a vaccination campaign, provision of safe water and health education. Neighbouring countries also reported cholera cases in October.
3 November 2015: a total of 7,155 cumulative cases reported, with 96 deaths. Although the figures of the current outbreak are lower than those of previous years, the rapid increase of cases (from 5,973 on 31 October, to 7,155 on 3 November), with almost 20% of overall cases occurring in just four days, indicates that a sharp and rapid increase in cases is highly likely. Given the current context and applying attack rates to the population at risk, similar to previous outbreaks, without significant and rapid intervention there is a very real risk that the current outbreak will increase to reach 1997 levels, with upwards of 40,000 cases within the next few months.
11 November 2015: Emergency Appeal launched for 941,146 Swiss francs for 226,000 people, with 188,505 Swiss francs allocated from the IFRC’s Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) as start-up support.
18 December 2015: revised Emergency Appeal seeks 1,290,421 Swiss francs (increased from 941,146 Swiss francs) to support the Tanzania Red Cross Society (TRCS) to scale-up the response n to the growing cholera outbreak for some 226,000 people.
January - March 2016:
As visible in graph 1 and graph 2 below, new cholera cases remain to be reported on a continuous basis and the location where they appear changes. In addition new regions have begun to experience cholera transmission. This for example includes Iringa, Manyara and Mbeya. In addition there was an increase in new cholera cases in Morogoro, Mwanza, Mara, Dodoma, Singida, Arusha and Simiyu. The Ministry of Health, Community Development Gender Elderly and Children (MOHCDGEC), sent rapid response and assessment teams to some of these regions.