Belg prospects improve with heavy rainfall in April, but Emergency likely to continue
KEY MESSAGES
More than 10.2 million people require emergency food assistance in 2016, following El Niño-induced drought in 2015 that resulted in very poor Belg and Meher harvests, significant livestock deaths and reductions in livestock productivity, and reduced household access to food and cash income. Worst- affected areas include Wag Himra, East and West Hararghe, and pastoral areas in Shinile and southern Afar, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will continue through at least September 2016.
Following the late onset and poor performance of Belg rainfall throughout March, rainfall since early April has significantly improved and reduced rainfall deficits. Although late planting will delay harvests in SNNPR, national Belg harvests are expected to be average to slightly below average. Additional rainfall during the next few weeks will recharge water sources, improve browse and pasture, allow land preparation/planting of Meher crops, and favor development of cash crops.
National-level admissions of malnourished children under five-years old to Therapeutic Feeding Programs (TFP) in February 2016 increased 14 percent compared to January 2016, and 47 percent compared to February last year. Without substantial increases in humanitarian assistance, increases in acute malnutrition are likely through the peak of the lean season in September 2016.
Current contributions to the humanitarian appeal for food assistance have only funded approximately half of identified needs, while Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) transfers also typically end in June. In the absence of additional funding, assistance will cease just as needs begin to peak between June and September.