Key Issues
Based on ongoing monitoring activities and the findings of the FSNAU’s rapid field assessment (June 2016) and climate forecasts for 2016 Hagaa (June - July) and Deyr (October - December), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) projects deterioration of food security conditions in parts of Central and Southern agricultural livelihoods of Somalia in the post-Gu period (July-December 2016).
The foreseen deterioration is attributed to below average Gu harvest outlook as a result of unfavourable Gu rainy season, while Hagaa (June - July) seasonal rains are also expected to be below normal. In addition, next Deyr rainy season (October-December) is likely to be below average in most parts of the country due to likely La Nina event.
Flood-affected areas of Hiran and Middle Shabelle are likely to be most affected, particularly during the Hagaa dry season. Similarly, livestock-dependent coastal areas (Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Cowpea Belt) of Central, where poor households mostly own small ruminants, are also likely to see deterioration in their food security situation due to the impact of poor Gu rains and anticipated unfavourable Deyr rainy season this year.
On the other hand, recent Gu rains have helped to recover pasture, water and livestock conditions in pastoral areas in the Northwest, including the drought-affected areas of Guban and Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihoods. The agropastoral areas of Northwest, which were affected by drought over the past two years, are likely to see some improvements due to projected above average Gu-Karan rains (July-September) with a positive impact on major harvest in November. Improved livestock conditions and increased demand during the forthcoming Hajj season (September) are expected to lead to increased livestock prices.
However, recovery from the lingering impacts of successive droughts and consequent food security crisis situation will be slow in Guban Pastoral livelihood, where households experienced reduction in livestock herd size due to livestock death and accelerated sales during recent drought. Livestock reproduction in this livelihood is expected to be low in the projection period.
Concerns remain regarding the food security situation in the urban areas of Hiran, Bakool and Bay regions, which have been affected by trade blockade over the past two years. Despite relative improvements in food access in recent months, the food security situation in these towns remains volatile.
Overall, the 2016 Gu cereal harvest in southern Somalia is expected to be 30 - 50 percent below post war average (1995 - 2015) average. The shortfall is attributed to less planting due to poor rainfall performance, moisture stress, pest infestation and flood damage in riverine areas of Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions. The areas with below average harvest include the major cereal producing regions of Lower Shabelle and Bay, which together normally account for 70-80 percent of the total cereal production in southern regions of Somalia. Off-season harvests are expected in September in flood-affected Middle Shabelle and Hiran as well as riverine areas of Juba and Gedo regions, but their contribution to total production is minimal.
The farmers in Cowpea Belt of Central are also likely to collect poor harvest of cereals and cowpea, which is a main crop produced in the livelihood, normally providing 3-4 months of stock to poor farmers. On the other hand, in the agropastoral livelihood of the Northwest, the Gu-Karan harvest is expected to be above average in light of the projected above average Karan rains.
Livestock conditions have improved in several pastoral and agropastoral areas of the country, apart from rain-deficit areas, particularly parts of NIP and Guban livelihoods due to the poor Gu rains and anticipated below normal Deyr rains, where livestock conditions are below average. Milk availability is expected to be below normal in most areas over the next six months, especially in the rain-deficit and drought-affected livelihoods of Guban and NIP.