Introduction
The Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) Early Warning, Early Action and Readiness (EWEAR) Report is produced bi-annually by the inter-agency Reference Group on Risk, Early Warning and Preparedness to highlight risks with a high probability and impact on humanitarian needs during the next six months (June to November 2016). The Report aims to provide a forward-looking analysis of the most serious risks in support of IASC Reference Group activity and to equip relevant decision makers with key information for preparedness, response, advocacy and resource mobilisation efforts to mitigate and manage these risks.
As a product of a humanitarian inter-agency entity, adherence to the humanitarian principles is a key factor in its production, in particular independence – meaning the autonomy of humanitarian objectives from those of a political, economic, military or other nature. The Report acts as an inter-agency source of information for officials accountable at the global level for preparedness and is in addition to reporting up the normal chain of accountability from Resident and Humanitarian Coordinators. The Report does not aim to provide an analysis of the relative severity of humanitarian need.
Each country or region includes a risk analysis followed by an analysis of IASC response capacity and preparedness. In an effort to support concerted early action to the situations of most concern, the initial list of risks provided by the different agencies has been prioritised to highlight only those risks assessed as having the most acute gap between the potential humanitarian impact and existing capacity and preparedness levels. Countries have been divided into three ‘tiers’ based on the assessed gap between the seriousness of the risk and the level of preparedness and response capacity: very high, high or moderate.
It was agreed that risks relating to existing Level 3 emergencies (L3s) should only be included in the Report by exception, as L3s are already regularly reviewed by the IASC, with every effort made to scale up and enhance the response. A summary of the methodology used to develop risk selection is at the end of this Report.
All information provided is based on extensive research by the various contributing agencies, with the risk analyses drawing from a range of open and public sources, and presents the IASC early warning analysts group’s collective assessment. The IASC Index for Risk Management (INFORM) values, which are based on historic data, have been added to provide a wider risk context.
The IASC early warning analysts group will continue to closely monitor these risks and the wide range of ‘on watch’ risks that were not included in this Report, as part of regular monthly discussions. This Report was collaboratively developed as an inter-agency product by early warning and preparedness analysts from the following IASC partners: ACAPS, FAO, OCHA, OHCHR, UNDP, UNHCR, UNICEF, UN Women, WFP and WHO. WFP provided staff to facilitate the process and compile the text.
Published in June 2016